The Curious Case of the Chicago Bulls

This past Thursday the Chicago Bulls beat the Miami Heat 93-89. While the Chicago sports community was not too shocked, the national media was finally forced to ask the question: Are the Chicago Bulls a legitimate contender for the Eastern Conference title? The following is a discussion on this very question. The first section will detail why the Bulls are not being considered contenders for the NBA title and relegated to the Eastern Conference discussion. The second section will focus on the case for the Bulls being legitimate contenders for the Eastern Conference. The third part will go into the case against the Bulls being contenders for the conference title.

Let me be clear here, the Bulls are not serious contenders for the NBA title. The first reason I see is that the Bulls lack necessary deep playoff experience. The only starter on the Bulls who has even made it to any conference title series is Carlos Boozer who took the Utah Jazz to the Western Conference finals in 2007. While I realize that playoff experience is not everything when it comes to a roster winning a NBA title, knowing how to deal with playoff pressure is a valuable asset that other contenders this year have. Aside from the Oklahoma City Thunder, the five other major contenders other than the Bulls (the Spurs, Lakers, Celtics, Magic, and Heat) have superstars who have at least been to the NBA Finals if not won it all. The only potential hope for the Bulls if they get to the NBA finals is facing the Thunder, however, requiring such a specific condition I feel debunks the Bulls chances. Furthermore, could the Bulls out-defend the Spurs four out of seven games and could they contain the offense capacity of the Lakers over a seven game series? This does not seem likely. Might the Bulls win the whole thing this year? Maybe, but the odds are seriously against them.

Getting to the NBA Finals might be another story, however, as the Bulls appear as legitimate contenders to the Eastern Conference title. The most important reason for this is one guy: Derrick Rose. No, Rose is not an once in a generation level talent, however, he is a once in a generation of a team player. To say that he is not a legitimate superstar is laughable. Yes, he does not get the respect that other top tier players get, however, that comes with both skill and time and Rose is in his third year in the league. Rose is a rare talent who both has remarkable basketball skills and is a positive influence in the locker room. You will not be hearing about him calling out a teammate or getting into serious legal trouble anytime soon (his stint at the University of Memphis will be a topic of conversation in a future column. Aside from just Rose, the Bulls have two serious rebounders in Boozer and Noah. When your C and PF can get you more than 30 PPG and 20 RPG (as the two combined provide) then I think your interior is pretty well set. Also, SF Deng provides an X-factor as a guy who will is putting up 19.1 PPG at the time of this entry. Another major factor is Coach Tom Thibodeau who has preached a focus of team-oriented defense, something the Bulls have for the most part bought into this season. If the Bulls can stay healthy in the post season I have no doubts that they will be making serious noise.

This optimism should be tempered, however, as we remember that the Bulls are new to this whole going deep in the playoffs thing (as I mentioned earlier). They might have the best PG in the Eastern Conference, however, they have yet to show consistent playoff success or prolonged success in the regular season against major NBA title contenders (7-7 record against the Lakers, Magic, Celtics, Heat, Thunder, and Spurs this season and 3-4 versus the Magic, Heat, and Celtics). We also have to consider their three main Eastern Conference opponents, the Magic, Heat, and Celtics. The Magic are admittedly probably manageable for the Bulls in a seven game series, although I doubt that Noah and Boozer can honestly contain Howard (something the Bulls proved they do not need to necessarily do to win an individual game against the Magic). The Heat are going to be an interesting team to watch in the playoffs, will their talent shine or crumble under the pressure? The real threat, however, is the Celtics. The starting five has 8 NBA titles between them and the team is geared to truly show its skill in the playoffs. These guys know how to get to the NBA finals (13 NBA finals appearance by the starting five) and are the type who realize that skill alone is not enough to get to the grand stage. If the Bulls are to get passes these teams in the East it will have to kick things up a notch and have its product reflect its talent.

So where exactly do I see the Bulls in the playoffs? If they somehow pull the 1 seed in the East I see them making the conference finals and probably winning that due to the battle that the Celtics and Heat will have in the conference semi-finals in that case. Realistically they'll probably be the 2 or 3 seed, in which case a first round exit would be tragic and a second round exit would be unfortunate. I can see them making the finals, however, I believe that the 2011-2012 season will end with the Bulls and Thunder tearing down the house on the big stage.

The Trade Deadline

by Alfonso Colasuonno

Well, this year's trade deadline has brought some interesting changes to various teams. First off, I have to start with the trade everyone's been buzzing over. Yes, James Johnson is leaving the Bulls to go to the Raptors for a draft pick!!! (It's so exciting, it warrants more than one exclamation point!!) I firmly believe that this is the trade that will catapult the Raptors over the top of the Euroleague. In reality, who is James Johnson?

In other exciting trade news, the Bobcats are giving up any hope of contending for the playoffs. Joel Pryzbilla, AKA "The Big Solution", and two first-round picks are going to Charlotte for Gerald Wallace. While I don't think Gerald Wallace is in the level of a Carmelo Anthony, or even at an all-star level, he's a good player and will help make Portland a deeper team. A potential starting line of Andre Miller, Brandon Roy, Gerald Wallace, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Greg Oden is pretty formidable. All are hard-nosed players who give a tremendous amount of effort on the court. If Oden and Roy can stay healthy (yeah, right) and Batum, Fernandez, and Matthews keep developing, and Camby doesn't let age catch up to him, this is a team that has a chance to do some things in the future or even this season.

Charlotte also made another move, trading Nazr Mohammed, a solid player, for Morris Peterson (a used to be) and DJ White (a never was), formerly of the Thunder. First Nazr Mohammed can be part of the multi-headed center of the Thunder with Nick Collison and Nenad Krstic (just think, it's an upgrade over the years as the Sonics with Mohammed Sene and Robert Swift manning the middle).

Now Charlotte has always been one of the hardest to watch teams in the NBA. The blame can't be placed on former coach Larry Brown though. While his teams (think the Pistons of Chauncey Billups and the Sixers of Allen Iverson) have always been about defense, hustle, and work ethic; the talent at Charlotte just is absymal. This is a team that's overachieved by even being in consideration for a playoff spot or making the playoffs the last few years. When Boris Diaw and Stephen Jackson are your best players, you know this is the team David Stern needs to promote as where amazing happens. The "amazing" being that anyone actually pays for a ticket to their games. I guess there's only one opportunity a year to see Kobe for folks in Charlotte.

On to the big trades....Devin Harris, Derrick Favors, draft picks, and cash are going from the Nets to Utah for Deron Williams. Mikhail Prokhorov, owner of the Nets, had to do something to take some of the attention in the New York metro area away from the Knicks blockbuster trade for Carmelo. Deron Williams is a definite upgrade from Devin Harris. I think Devin Harris doesn't fit well with Avery Johnson's system. Either that, or he just plain doesn't like Avery Johnson. Devin Harris has gone from an all-star to a solid player under Avery Johnson. If they didn't make the trade, I wouldn't mind having Jordan Farmar usurp the role of starting point guard from Devin Harris, because it's clear the best effort of any Nets players is coming from their bench, namely Kris Humphries, Sasha Vujacic, and Jordan Farmar. Deron Williams now brings his act to Newark to help develop Brook Lopez. I really like Brook Lopez, I think he can be one of the dominant centers in the league. However, I think he is too laid-back. He seems like the type of guy who'd be more at home surfing than fighting for a rebound. If he can develop a killer instinct, he can become dangerous, and right up there with Dwight Howard for the best center in the league. Deron Williams coming to the Nets doesn't really spell any immediate gains for them, though. At best, it makes them win about half of their remaining games, but I wouldn't even count on that.

As for Utah....first Deron Williams drives out Jerry Sloan, then he gets shipped out. Utah's GM had a "gut feeling" that he wouldn't stay in Utah. If Devin Harris can recapture the form that made him an All-Star, and Derrick Favors can develop into a good athlete in the post to back up Jefferson and Millsap, the trade will be a good one for Utah, especially since Deron most likely wouldn't resign with Utah. As for the Jazz, I think they seem to be trending downwards. I think without Jerry Sloan's leadership and Deron Williams' talent and will, the Jazz will miss the playoffs this year, and for the foreseeable future.

OK. Carmelo. At first I was skeptical of the Knicks trading half the team to Denver for Carmelo, Billups, Shelden Williams, Anthony Carter, and Renaldo Balkman. The problem with the Knicks isn't their starting line, but their depth. Landry Fields is a smart, hard-nosed, talented rookie (probably the fourth best rookie behind Blake Griffin, John Wall, and DeMarcus Cousins, not bad for a 2nd rounder) who is a great glue player. Chauncey Billups is a proven winner and leader. Carmelo and Amare are superstars. Ronny Turiaf, though undersized, is a great energy and effort guy, and do you need 5 scorers on the floor with Carmelo and Amare wanting the ball? The problem for the Knicks is that their bench is abysmal. Toney Douglas is inconsistent, Shawne Williams is a one-dimensional three point shooter, Shelden Williams, Bill Walker, Corey Brewer, Anthony Carter, Roger Mason...are these names striking fear in your heart? While the Knicks will surely be more entertaining in the wake of the trade, I don't know if they will be markedly better. I think the biggest mistake in this trade for the Knicks was including Timofey Mozgov. Mozgov has shown flashes of brilliance. He's a young European rookie adjusting to the speed and talent of the NBA game, and will only get better. In trading Felton, Chandler, and Gallinari, you know what you're giving up. I doubt any of those players will develop much, if at all, beyond how they've played this season. Raymond Felton is an average starting point guard, Wilson Chandler is a talented sixth man, and Danilo Gallinari is arguably the best pure shooter in the NBA, but not a star in the making. Mozgov is the great unknown. He can develop into a formidable center.

As for Denver, this trade makes them incredibly deep! Of their 14-man roster, they have 12 guys who can legitimately ball (sorry Melvin Ely and Kosta Koufos). They'll probably score a ton of points and hang on to a playoff spot, but they lack the star power to move them to the marks of an elite team, or the team-first mentality to get away without having a star (see the Detroit Pistons of a few years ago). While the Nuggets should be fun to watch, I think come the summer they should trade some of their intriguing pieces for a superstar. The question is who would be available? Chris Paul? Personally, I think Chris Paul is overrated and not a guy who is going to bring a franchise over the top. I guess all Denver can do is wait for a superstar to get disgruntled and then throw their chips where they may fall.

Why Duke graduates cannot play in the NBA?: The problem of transitioning into the NBA.

Duke University: Within the past few decades this name has become synonymous with success in college basketball. Coach Mike Krzyzewski has lead year after year of new recruits into the promise land of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament; his 11 Final Four appearances, 8 national title appearances, and 4 NCAA championships standing as a testament to Duke's greatness. Love them or hate them, it is hard to argue that Duke is not a successful basketball program. Let me rephrase that: it is hard to argue that Duke is not a successful basketball program except when it comes to producing NBA players. Yes, I realize that Duke and Coach Krzyzewski  are excellent at producing successful people, I will not question that; however, Coach K and Duke have a rather poor record at producing basketball players that prove successful at the NBA level.

I know, I know, what about Grant Hill? He is an amazing NBA talent who is a potential future Hall-Of-Famer (a general subject to be detailed in a future post, I promise) and he went to Duke! Yes, at 17.6 PPG averaged for his career and over 16000 points for his career (16178 at time of this post) he has more than proven himself as a NBA player. And yes, there is the curious case of Loul Deng, SF for the Chicago Bulls with 16.0 PPG over his career (and from the looks of it this might increase over the next few years). These two examples are what we call statistical outliers in empirical analysis, in other words these are anomalies. Remember Christian Laettner? Star Duke forward, who was a cannot miss NCAA prospect? While 12.8 PPG is roughly 12.8 PPG more than what I could pull in the NBA, considering how highly touted he was coming out of Duke, his careet average of 12.8 PPG is rather underwhelming. How about J.J. Redick, a sure-shot guarantee SG from Duke? 7.6 PPG for his career so far (in the middle of his fifth year) does not speak so well for how well he performed in NCAA play. How about prospect Danny Ferry who had a career 7.0 PPG or Bobby Hurley with 3.8 PPG for his career or Daniel Ewing with 3.4 PPG?

I could continue to list various Duke prospects that failed in the NBA, however, this will be a mere exercise in my ability to dig up data.  I hope the point is clear, players who were successful at Duke do not translate their talent that well to the NBA. So what accounts for this disconnect? I theorize that it is the recruiting talent of Coach K. One of the key ways in which Duke has been able to maintain its success is in the ability of Krzyzewski to recruit the best sort of player for his basketball system. At Duke Coach K has a particular philosophy and he recruits to fit his way of playing basketball. Furthermore, looking at his success as coach of Team USA in recent years nullifies the possibility that he cannot coach NBA talent. Coach K knows how to run a basketball program whether it is college kids or elite NBA talent; the problem here is that when he is dealing with Duke he does not run a NBA style program hence he does not recruit as such. The reason for this goes back to his philosophy: team basketball. While any successful program at the NCAA, Olympic, or NBA level has to run a team based defense, Coach K has emphasized a team oriented offense as well. That has been what makes Duke so lethal under Krzyzewski; you can take out his number one scorer but that will minimally hurt his team since they operate on using all five guys on the floor to run the offense. This sort of philosophy does not translate well into the NBA, however, where most teams base there offense around two or three guys on the floor. You were guaranteed your touches and scoring opportunities if you were a starter for Duke, in the NBA this is not the case.

This is not a knock on Krzyzewski but instead is a warning to NBA scouts who are looking at the college ranks. Do not fall in love with the banners and stats that Duke players put up, please pay attention at the player's particular skill set. Remember, these players have found success in a peculiar system, make sure that the skills needed in this system match your team's system before you waste a draft pick. Furthermore, this might be a signal to the NBA that there might be something to the team based offense. Look at home many championships Lebron James, the best talent in the NBA, had when he was the offense in Cleveland: 0. Take a look at how many banners the Detroit Piston and San Antonio Spurs (both epitomes  of the team concept) have won in the past 8 seasons: 4. There might be something to the team oriented offense, however, this is more the exception as opposed to the norm in the NBA. Maybe at that point Duke players will have consistent success in the NBA, until then just hope your favorite NBA team's GM does not use a first-round draft pick on another hot Duke prospect.

The Washington Wizards and The Cleveland Cavaliers: The Best Stories of the NBA Season So Far (Or: A Little Case of Schadenfreude Never Hurt Anyone)

by Alfonso Colasuonno

Well, it had to happen eventually, right? The Washington Wizards were bound to win a road game. I guess the NBA truly is where amazing happens. And who did it come against? The Cleveland Cavaliers, fresh off of setting the NBA record for most consecutive losses at 26 (which also tied the record set by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers of the NFL for most consecutive losses in all of the 4 major men's sports in the US). The Wizards beat the Cavaliers today behind 31 points from Nick Young, who has shown flashes of brilliance in his early career, despite behind saddled as the backup to perennial miscreant Gilbert Arenas for ages. However, I personally find the Wizards beating the Cavaliers today to be the most depressing story in the NBA all year.

So, what's so depressing about the fact that the Wizards beat the hapless Cavaliers? Well, for one thing, I always love seeing record-breaking feats happen in sports. The Wizards were on the track to go 0-41 on the road, something that's never happened in the NBA, until they met the equally hapless Cavaliers. There will never be another player to average a triple double like Oscar Robertson. No matter how talented LeBron is, it's just not feasible in this age. The competition that LeBron faces is infinitely better than the competition that Oscar Robertson faced. So, what's left to root for in today's NBA? Nothing more than impressive marks of futility. Every new season I hope that the famed 9-73 record of the 72-73 Philadelphia 76ers will be surpassed (is that even the right word?) As long as teams with the talent level of the Sacramento Kings, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Jersey Nets, Toronto Raptors, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Washington Wizards exist in the NBA, there's always hope that a team will punch out of the NBA season with 8 wins or less.

Perhaps if it wasn't today against the Cavaliers, the Wizards would have eventually won on the road. The Wizards do have remaining road games against the Pistons, the Raptors, and another game in Cleveland to end the season. Plus, they aren't terrible at home at a mark of 14-13, only one more loss and an equal number of wins as the sixth place New York Knicks (not as if the Knicks are a benchmark of quality, but just saying....). They do have some bright spots on the team. Nick Young has really stepped out of Gilbert Arenas' shadow and has become the team's marquee player. Andray Blatche continues on the trend from last year of becoming a solid contributor. John Wall has had a spectacular rookie season and is a bonafide star point guard of the future who possesses sheer athleticism unrivaled at the position. Rashard Lewis is a solid player and Kirk Hinrich brings toughness and solid defense off the bench. The team still needs a better center than JaVale McGee and a bonafide star to rise to the ranks of respectability; but this is not a team that is completely hapless like the Cavaliers, who have recently been starting players I've never heard of (Who are Alonzo Gee and Christian Eyenga?)

Still, with the Cavaliers recent win over the Clippers, my hopes of a record being set for most losses in a row, and conceivably, an 8 win season (though that would mean the Cavs would have to have lost 54 games in a row to end the season, but again see my point about Eyenga and Gee) were dashed. The Wizards were my last hope at a record for futility being set, and that's gone too. But we always have next year to look forward to. My bet is on the Raptors. When Andrea Bargnani is your star, you know you have problems. I don't know if the team would do well in Euroleague play, let alone the NBA. That they haven't been in the running for records of futility this year is a testament to coach Jay Triano. As to why I hope for records of futility being set, it's not really because I doubt something amazing like a record for wins or even a triple double won't be set, it's rather just for the fact that I delight in misery, and the Cavaliers and Wizards have provided ample amounts of that factor this season; unfortunately, just not enough for my excessive tastes.